PITCHER MATCHUP

Miles Mikolas vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Miles Mikolas's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Miles Mikolas's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .348vs RHH xwOBA .337Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 27%Slider 23%Sinker 21%Curveball 15%Changeup 10%Sweeper 4%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Miles Mikolas, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 495 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 414 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Jake Mangum SH .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-05 game page →