PITCHER MATCHUP

Miles Mikolas vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Miles Mikolas's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Miles Mikolas's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .349vs RHH xwOBA .346Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 26%Slider 23%Sinker 21%Curveball 16%Changeup 10%Sweeper 4%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Miles Mikolas, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .404
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .429 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .422 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CW Christian Walker RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.