PITCHER MATCHUP

Miles Mikolas vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Miles Mikolas's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Miles Mikolas's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .348vs RHH xwOBA .337Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 27%Slider 23%Sinker 21%Curveball 15%Changeup 10%Sweeper 4%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Miles Mikolas, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .399
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .417 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .423 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-06 game page →