Starting Pitcher · Minnesota Twins
Mike Paredes
RHP · Throws Right · Age 25Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
No graded line yet for tonight's start vs. Guardians. The projection appears when the model has a line to price.
Drafted by the Minnesota Twins in 2021 (round 18). He made his MLB debut on May 31, 2026.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)
Tonight's Matchup
vs. Guardians · pregame
Projected xwOBA vs. Guardians current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .302
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1
BR
Brayan Rocchio
SH
.306
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brayan Rocchio
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (16% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
2
SK
Steven Kwan
LHB
.315
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Steven Kwan
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 573 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
3
CD
Chase DeLauter
LHB
.322
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase DeLauter
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (16% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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4
KM
Kyle Manzardo
LHB
.305
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Manzardo
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (16% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5
DS
Daniel Schneemann
LHB
.307
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daniel Schneemann
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (16% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6
TB
Travis Bazzana
LHB
.298
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Travis Bazzana
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (16% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
7
RH
Rhys Hoskins
RHB
.294
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rhys Hoskins
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .232 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8
PB
Patrick Bailey
SH
.286
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Patrick Bailey
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (16% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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9
DF
David Fry
SH
.281
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Fry
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (16% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Four-Seam Fastball
FF · lead pitch
39% of pitches · .375 xwOBA allowed · 46 BIP · where it goes, what it costs
Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) has allowed .375 xwOBA over 46 balls in play — his most-used pitch.
Arsenal
usage × whiff, ranked
4 pitch types · 463-pitch sample · 2026 season
Four-Seam Fastball FF
39% usage · 12% whiff · .375 xwOBA · 93.0 mph
Changeup CH
23% usage · 20% whiff · .327 xwOBA · 87.5 mph
Sweeper ST
22% usage · 26% whiff · .316 xwOBA · 78.9 mph
Cutter FC
16% usage · 22% whiff · .364 xwOBA · 87.4 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 7 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
Four-Seam FastballChangeupSweeper
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026 season
| Split | K% | xwOBA | Sample |
|---|
| vs. LHB | 6.1 |
.325 |
81 |
| vs. RHB | 21.7 |
.390 |
45 |
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Market lines
current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day
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DFS picks
today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly
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