PITCHER MATCHUP

Michael Soroka vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Michael Soroka's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Michael Soroka's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 37%SV 30%Sinker 12%Changeup 11%Cutter 6%Slider 4%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Michael Soroka, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 JB Josh Bell SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BB Byron Buxton RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 BL Brooks Lee SH .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KC Kody Clemens SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AM Austin Martin RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 1 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RL Royce Lewis RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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