PITCHER MATCHUP

Michael Soroka vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Michael Soroka's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Michael Soroka's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .330vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 37%SV 30%Sinker 11%Changeup 11%Cutter 7%Slider 3%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Michael Soroka, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 408 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 535 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 LC Luis Campusano RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (30% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.