PITCHER MATCHUP

Michael Lorenzen vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Michael Lorenzen's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Michael Lorenzen's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .356vs RHH xwOBA .338Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sinker 19%Changeup 19%Cutter 13%Curveball 11%Slider 10%Sweeper 8%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Michael Lorenzen, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JC Junior Caminero RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 RP Richie Palacios LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NF Nick Fortes RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.