PITCHER MATCHUP

Michael Lorenzen vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Michael Lorenzen's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Michael Lorenzen's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .349vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sinker 19%Changeup 19%Cutter 13%Curveball 11%Slider 10%Sweeper 8%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Michael Lorenzen, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 468 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .275
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BW Ben Williamson RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NF Nick Fortes RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-03 game page →