PITCHER MATCHUP

Michael Lorenzen vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Michael Lorenzen's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Michael Lorenzen's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .356vs RHH xwOBA .338Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sinker 19%Changeup 19%Cutter 13%Curveball 11%Slider 10%Sweeper 8%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Michael Lorenzen, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jake Mangum SH .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.