PITCHER MATCHUP

Michael Lorenzen vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Michael Lorenzen's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Michael Lorenzen's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .356vs RHH xwOBA .330Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 22%Changeup 18%Sinker 18%Cutter 12%Curveball 12%Slider 10%Sweeper 8%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Michael Lorenzen, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Jake Mangum SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JT Jared Triolo RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-21 game page →