PITCHER MATCHUP

Michael Lorenzen vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Michael Lorenzen's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Michael Lorenzen's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .354vs RHH xwOBA .337Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sinker 19%Changeup 19%Cutter 13%Curveball 11%Slider 10%Sweeper 8%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Michael Lorenzen, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 516 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.