PITCHER MATCHUP

Michael Lorenzen vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Michael Lorenzen's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Michael Lorenzen's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .349vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sinker 19%Changeup 19%Cutter 13%Curveball 11%Slider 10%Sweeper 8%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Michael Lorenzen, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-28 game page →