PITCHER MATCHUP

Michael Lorenzen vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Michael Lorenzen's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Michael Lorenzen's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .352vs RHH xwOBA .339Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sinker 19%Changeup 19%Cutter 12%Curveball 11%Slider 10%Sweeper 8%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Michael Lorenzen, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Owen Caissie LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LJ Leo Jiménez RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Jiménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.