PITCHER MATCHUP

Michael Lorenzen vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Michael Lorenzen's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Michael Lorenzen's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .353vs RHH xwOBA .340Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sinker 19%Changeup 19%Cutter 13%Curveball 11%Slider 10%Sweeper 8%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Michael Lorenzen, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 574 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 553 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 509 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 595 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 613 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.