PITCHER MATCHUP

Michael Lorenzen vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Michael Lorenzen's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Michael Lorenzen's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .353vs RHH xwOBA .334Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 22%Changeup 18%Sinker 18%Cutter 12%Curveball 12%Slider 11%Sweeper 8%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Michael Lorenzen, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 AB Alex Bregman RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 492 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MB Moisés Ballesteros LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Moisés Ballesteros
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.