PITCHER MATCHUP

Michael Lorenzen vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Michael Lorenzen's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Michael Lorenzen's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .356vs RHH xwOBA .338Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sinker 19%Changeup 19%Cutter 13%Curveball 11%Slider 10%Sweeper 8%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Michael Lorenzen, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 537 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.