PITCHER MATCHUP

Michael Lorenzen vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Michael Lorenzen's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Michael Lorenzen's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .349vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sinker 19%Changeup 19%Cutter 13%Curveball 11%Slider 10%Sweeper 8%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Michael Lorenzen, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BJ Blaze Jordan RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Jordan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-09 game page →