PITCHER MATCHUP

Michael King vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Michael King's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Michael King's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 29%Changeup 25%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sweeper 19%Slider 6%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Michael King, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .397
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .276
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-08 game page →