PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Scherzer vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Scherzer's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Scherzer's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .299Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Slider 22%Changeup 14%Curveball 13%Cutter 3%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Scherzer, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RG Riley Greene LHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GT Gleyber Torres RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gleyber Torres
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JB Javier Báez SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Báez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-16 game page →