PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Scherzer vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Scherzer's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Scherzer's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .363vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Slider 23%Changeup 14%Curveball 12%Cutter 2%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Scherzer, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Marcelo Mayer LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcelo Mayer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 IK Isiah Kiner-Falefa RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isiah Kiner-Falefa
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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