PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Scherzer vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Scherzer's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Scherzer's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .363vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Slider 23%Changeup 14%Curveball 12%Cutter 2%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Scherzer, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 595 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 414 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.