PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Scherzer vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Scherzer's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Scherzer's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .288Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Slider 21%Changeup 14%Curveball 14%Cutter 3%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Scherzer, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 645 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CM Curtis Mead RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.