PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Scherzer vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Scherzer's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Scherzer's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .288Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Slider 21%Changeup 14%Curveball 14%Cutter 3%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Scherzer, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .257
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.