PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Scherzer vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Scherzer's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Scherzer's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .354vs RHH xwOBA .295Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Slider 24%Changeup 14%Curveball 13%Cutter 2%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Scherzer, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .261
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NF Nick Fortes RHB .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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