PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Scherzer vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Scherzer's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Scherzer's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .363vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Slider 23%Changeup 14%Curveball 12%Cutter 2%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Scherzer, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Bohm RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 BH Bryce Harper LHB .375
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BS Bryson Stott LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JC Justin Crawford LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ES Edmundo Sosa RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Edmundo Sosa
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.