PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Scherzer vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Scherzer's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Scherzer's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .288Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Slider 21%Changeup 14%Curveball 14%Cutter 3%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Scherzer, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 559 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.