PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Scherzer vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Scherzer's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Scherzer's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .352vs RHH xwOBA .302Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Slider 23%Changeup 14%Curveball 13%Cutter 2%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Scherzer, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .328
  1. 1 CY Cole Young LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JN Josh Naylor LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 555 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .358
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 610 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 506 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 VR Victor Robles RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Robles
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-30 game page →