PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Scherzer vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Scherzer's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Scherzer's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .299Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Slider 22%Changeup 14%Curveball 13%Cutter 3%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Scherzer, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .304
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 384 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MW Masyn Winn RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 NC Nathan Church LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JF José Fermín RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 VS Victor Scott II LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Scott II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.