PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Scherzer vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Scherzer's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Scherzer's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .363vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Slider 23%Changeup 14%Curveball 12%Cutter 2%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Scherzer, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Iván Herrera RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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