PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Fried vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Fried's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Fried's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .263vs RHH xwOBA .277Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 23%Sinker 18%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Curveball 16%Changeup 12%Sweeper 11%Slider 2%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Fried, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 645 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CM Curtis Mead RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.