PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Fried vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Fried's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Fried's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .263vs RHH xwOBA .283Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 23%Sinker 19%Four-Seam Fastball 18%Curveball 17%Changeup 12%Sweeper 10%Slider 2%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Fried, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 617 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CW Connor Wong RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EW Eli White RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eli White
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-29 game page →