PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Fried vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Fried's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Fried's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .261vs RHH xwOBA .282Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 23%Sinker 19%Four-Seam Fastball 18%Curveball 16%Changeup 12%Sweeper 10%Slider 2%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Fried, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.