PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Fried vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Fried's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Fried's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .270vs RHH xwOBA .286Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 23%Sinker 19%Curveball 17%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 12%Sweeper 10%Slider 2%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Fried, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JM Jake Mangum SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-22 game page →