PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Fried vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Fried's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Fried's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .263vs RHH xwOBA .277Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 23%Sinker 18%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Curveball 16%Changeup 12%Sweeper 11%Slider 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Fried, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.