PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Fried vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Fried's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Fried's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .261vs RHH xwOBA .282Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 23%Sinker 19%Four-Seam Fastball 18%Curveball 16%Changeup 12%Sweeper 10%Slider 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Fried, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 506 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-04 game page →