PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Fried vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Fried's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Fried's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .262vs RHH xwOBA .281Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 23%Sinker 18%Four-Seam Fastball 18%Curveball 17%Changeup 12%Sweeper 10%Slider 2%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Fried, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 CY Cole Young LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 TW Taylor Ward RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JN Josh Naylor LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 592 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CE Colt Emerson LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 VR Victor Robles RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Robles
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-13 game page →