PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Fried vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Fried's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Fried's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .263vs RHH xwOBA .277Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 23%Sinker 18%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Curveball 16%Changeup 12%Sweeper 11%Slider 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Fried, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 CK Carson Kelly RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MS Matt Shaw RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.