PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Fried vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Fried's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Fried's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .266vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 23%Sinker 19%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Curveball 17%Changeup 12%Sweeper 10%Slider 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Fried, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 578 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 466 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-01 game page →