PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Fried vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Fried's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Fried's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .261vs RHH xwOBA .282Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 23%Sinker 19%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Curveball 17%Changeup 12%Sweeper 11%Slider 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Fried, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 575 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 554 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 597 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 615 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 485 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.