PITCHER MATCHUP

Matthew Liberatore vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Matthew Liberatore's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Matthew Liberatore's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .318vs RHH xwOBA .354Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Slider 22%Curveball 15%Changeup 13%Sinker 12%Cutter 8%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Matthew Liberatore, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 506 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 521 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 551 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-05 game page →