PITCHER MATCHUP

Matthew Boyd vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Matthew Boyd's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Matthew Boyd's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Changeup 25%Slider 15%Curveball 11%Sinker 3%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Matthew Boyd, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 JB Josh Bell SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 480 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brooks Lee SH .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KC Kody Clemens SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AM Austin Martin RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RL Royce Lewis RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TG Tristan Gray LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tristan Gray
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-18 game page →