PITCHER MATCHUP

Matthew Boyd vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Matthew Boyd's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Matthew Boyd's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .285vs RHH xwOBA .314Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Changeup 25%Slider 14%Curveball 11%Sinker 3%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Matthew Boyd, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 553 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JB JJ Bleday LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 507 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TF TJ Friedl LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-12 game page →