PITCHER MATCHUP

Matthew Boyd vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Matthew Boyd's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Matthew Boyd's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .285vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Changeup 25%Slider 15%Curveball 11%Sinker 3%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Matthew Boyd, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 JM Jake Mangum SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-24 game page →