PITCHER MATCHUP

Matthew Boyd vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Matthew Boyd's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Matthew Boyd's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .298vs RHH xwOBA .320Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Changeup 25%Slider 15%Curveball 12%Sinker 3%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Matthew Boyd, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 549 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.