PITCHER MATCHUP

Matthew Boyd vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Matthew Boyd's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Matthew Boyd's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .282vs RHH xwOBA .311Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Changeup 25%Slider 15%Curveball 11%Sinker 3%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Matthew Boyd, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TF Ty France RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-30 game page →