PITCHER MATCHUP

Matthew Boyd vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Matthew Boyd's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Matthew Boyd's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .303vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Changeup 26%Slider 15%Curveball 12%Sinker 3%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Matthew Boyd, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .357
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LC Luis Campusano RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.