PITCHER MATCHUP

Matthew Boyd vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Matthew Boyd's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Matthew Boyd's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .294vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Changeup 25%Slider 15%Curveball 11%Sinker 3%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Matthew Boyd, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.