PITCHER MATCHUP

Matthew Boyd vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Matthew Boyd's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Matthew Boyd's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .303vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Changeup 26%Slider 15%Curveball 12%Sinker 3%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Matthew Boyd, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 AR Agustín Ramírez RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Agustín Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-24 game page →