PITCHER MATCHUP

Matthew Boyd vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Matthew Boyd's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Matthew Boyd's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .285vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Changeup 25%Slider 15%Curveball 11%Sinker 3%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Matthew Boyd, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Iván Herrera RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-29 game page →