PITCHER MATCHUP

Mason Adams vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mason Adams's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mason Adams's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .327vs RHH xwOBA .355Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Sinker 26%Curveball 18%Sweeper 12%Changeup 5%Cutter 5%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mason Adams, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 531 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-16 game page →