PITCHER MATCHUP

Mason Adams vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Mason Adams's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Mason Adams's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .346vs RHH xwOBA .339Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 31%Sinker 25%Curveball 19%Sweeper 13%Cutter 6%Changeup 5%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Mason Adams, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LC Luis Campusano RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.