PITCHER MATCHUP

Martín Pérez vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Martín Pérez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Martín Pérez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .316vs RHH xwOBA .345Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 33%Changeup 29%Cutter 24%Curveball 9%Four-Seam Fastball 5%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Martín Pérez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Owen Caissie LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JM Joe Mack LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Sinker (33% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-06 game page →