PITCHER MATCHUP

Martín Pérez vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Martín Pérez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Martín Pérez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .338vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 34%Changeup 30%Cutter 23%Curveball 9%Four-Seam Fastball 4%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Martín Pérez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CK Carson Kelly RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MS Matt Shaw RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.