PITCHER MATCHUP

Martín Pérez vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Martín Pérez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Martín Pérez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .334vs RHH xwOBA .339Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 34%Changeup 29%Cutter 23%Curveball 9%Four-Seam Fastball 5%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Martín Pérez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 575 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 554 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 597 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 615 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 485 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-15 game page →