PITCHER MATCHUP

Martín Pérez vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Martín Pérez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Martín Pérez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .338Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 34%Changeup 29%Cutter 23%Curveball 9%Four-Seam Fastball 5%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Martín Pérez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .390
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .424 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-20 game page →