PITCHER MATCHUP

Martín Pérez vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Martín Pérez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Martín Pérez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .338vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 34%Changeup 30%Cutter 23%Curveball 9%Four-Seam Fastball 4%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Martín Pérez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .391
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .425 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BM Brice Matthews RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Sinker (34% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (30% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.