PITCHER MATCHUP

MacKenzie Gore vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against MacKenzie Gore's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

MacKenzie Gore's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .323vs RHH xwOBA .314Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 49%Curveball 21%Changeup 11%Slider 9%Cutter 7%Sinker 3%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against MacKenzie Gore, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 640 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 AR Adley Rutschman SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TS Trevor Story RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CW Connor Wong RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NS Nick Sogard SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-16 game page →