PITCHER MATCHUP

MacKenzie Gore vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against MacKenzie Gore's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

MacKenzie Gore's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .324vs RHH xwOBA .311Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 49%Curveball 21%Changeup 11%Slider 9%Cutter 7%Sinker 3%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against MacKenzie Gore, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JC Junior Caminero RHB .364
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 510 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RP Richie Palacios LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NF Nick Fortes RHB .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.