PITCHER MATCHUP

MacKenzie Gore vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against MacKenzie Gore's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

MacKenzie Gore's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .326vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Curveball 22%Changeup 10%Slider 9%Cutter 8%Sinker 2%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against MacKenzie Gore, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .363
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 384 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .267
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NF Nick Fortes RHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-29 game page →