PITCHER MATCHUP

MacKenzie Gore vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against MacKenzie Gore's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

MacKenzie Gore's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 49%Curveball 21%Changeup 12%Slider 9%Cutter 7%Sinker 3%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against MacKenzie Gore, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .358
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LC Luis Campusano RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.