PITCHER MATCHUP

MacKenzie Gore vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against MacKenzie Gore's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

MacKenzie Gore's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .324vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 49%Curveball 22%Changeup 10%Slider 9%Cutter 8%Sinker 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against MacKenzie Gore, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RD Rodolfo Durán RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rodolfo Durán
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-21 game page →