PITCHER MATCHUP

MacKenzie Gore vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against MacKenzie Gore's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

MacKenzie Gore's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .323vs RHH xwOBA .314Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 49%Curveball 21%Changeup 11%Slider 9%Cutter 7%Sinker 3%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against MacKenzie Gore, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 515 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.