PITCHER MATCHUP

MacKenzie Gore vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against MacKenzie Gore's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

MacKenzie Gore's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .324vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Curveball 22%Changeup 11%Slider 9%Cutter 8%Sinker 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against MacKenzie Gore, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.