PITCHER MATCHUP

MacKenzie Gore vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against MacKenzie Gore's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

MacKenzie Gore's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .326vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Curveball 22%Changeup 10%Slider 9%Cutter 8%Sinker 2%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against MacKenzie Gore, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .331
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 574 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 LR Luke Raley LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .364
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 CE Colt Emerson LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-24 game page →