PITCHER MATCHUP

MacKenzie Gore vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against MacKenzie Gore's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

MacKenzie Gore's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 49%Curveball 21%Changeup 12%Slider 9%Cutter 7%Sinker 3%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against MacKenzie Gore, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .396
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.