PITCHER MATCHUP

MacKenzie Gore vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against MacKenzie Gore's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

MacKenzie Gore's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .329vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Curveball 22%Changeup 11%Slider 9%Cutter 8%Sinker 2%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against MacKenzie Gore, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .231 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .386
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .419 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-12 game page →