PITCHER MATCHUP

MacKenzie Gore vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against MacKenzie Gore's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

MacKenzie Gore's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .326vs RHH xwOBA .309Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 49%Curveball 21%Changeup 11%Slider 9%Cutter 7%Sinker 2%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against MacKenzie Gore, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 468 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .398
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .414 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .408 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 461 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.