PITCHER MATCHUP

Luis Castillo vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luis Castillo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .341vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Slider 23%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BB Byron Buxton RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 RL Royce Lewis RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-28 game page →