PITCHER MATCHUP

Luis Castillo vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luis Castillo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 23%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 624 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 551 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 DM Dane Myers RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.