PITCHER MATCHUP

Luis Castillo vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luis Castillo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .302Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 23%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 599 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 529 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 DM Dane Myers RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TF TJ Friedl LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 461 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .231 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 EA Edwin Arroyo SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Edwin Arroyo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.