PITCHER MATCHUP

Luis Castillo vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luis Castillo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .342vs RHH xwOBA .292Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Slider 23%Sinker 19%Changeup 12%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 562 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JB JJ Bleday LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TF TJ Friedl LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-21 game page →