PITCHER MATCHUP

Luis Castillo vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luis Castillo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 23%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 645 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CM Curtis Mead RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.