PITCHER MATCHUP
Luis Castillo vs Boston Red Sox
How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.
Luis Castillo's arsenal
Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 23%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%
How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project
Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.
Lineup avg xwOBA .314
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1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .318
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (20% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .309
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 645 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (20% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .291
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (20% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .303
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .346
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (20% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .326
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (20% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .291
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 CM Curtis Mead RHB .319
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (20% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .323
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (20% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.