PITCHER MATCHUP

Luis Castillo vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luis Castillo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .342vs RHH xwOBA .292Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Slider 23%Sinker 19%Changeup 12%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 599 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CW Connor Wong RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 AS Anthony Seigler SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Anthony Seigler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-06 game page →