PITCHER MATCHUP

Luis Castillo vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luis Castillo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 23%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 500 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 641 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Adley Rutschman SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TS Trevor Story RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 NS Nick Sogard SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.