PITCHER MATCHUP

Luis Castillo vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luis Castillo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .343vs RHH xwOBA .291Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Slider 23%Sinker 20%Changeup 12%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .303
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 NF Nick Fortes RHB .269
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-10 game page →