PITCHER MATCHUP

Luis Castillo vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luis Castillo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .342vs RHH xwOBA .299Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Slider 23%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .304
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .273
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .266
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NF Nick Fortes RHB .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.