PITCHER MATCHUP

Luis Castillo vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luis Castillo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 23%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .303
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .276
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .261
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .268
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.