PITCHER MATCHUP

Luis Castillo vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luis Castillo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 23%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 628 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.