PITCHER MATCHUP

Luis Castillo vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luis Castillo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .342vs RHH xwOBA .299Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Slider 23%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 480 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 568 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 595 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.