PITCHER MATCHUP

Luis Castillo vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luis Castillo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 23%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .306
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .276
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.