PITCHER MATCHUP

Luis Castillo vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luis Castillo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 23%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .302
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 384 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MW Masyn Winn RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 NC Nathan Church LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JF José Fermín RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .275
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 VS Victor Scott II LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Scott II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.