PITCHER MATCHUP

Luis Castillo vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luis Castillo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .291Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Slider 23%Sinker 20%Changeup 12%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .356
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YP Yohendrick Piñango LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yohendrick Piñango
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MS Myles Straw RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-03 game page →