PITCHER MATCHUP

Luis Castillo vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luis Castillo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .302Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 23%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .401
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .418 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 470 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .273
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-03 game page →