PITCHER MATCHUP

Luis Castillo vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luis Castillo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luis Castillo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 23%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luis Castillo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .395
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.