PITCHER MATCHUP
Luinder Avila vs Detroit Tigers
How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luinder Avila's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.
Luinder Avila's arsenal
Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .305vs RHH xwOBA .344Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 27%Sinker 26%Slider 22%Curveball 16%Changeup 9%
How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project
Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luinder Avila, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.
Lineup avg xwOBA .324
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1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .343
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (22% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 RG Riley Greene LHB .349
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (22% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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3 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .337
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (22% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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4 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .319
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (22% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5 CK Colt Keith LHB .327
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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6 MV Matt Vierling RHB .307
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Vierling
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .300
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (22% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 KC Kerry Carpenter LHB .328
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kerry Carpenter
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .304
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (22% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.