PITCHER MATCHUP

Luinder Avila vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luinder Avila's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luinder Avila's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .301vs RHH xwOBA .327Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 28%Sinker 25%Slider 23%Curveball 15%Changeup 9%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luinder Avila, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .356
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LT Leody Taveras SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CM Coby Mayo RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 BA Blaze Alexander RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Alexander
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-10 game page →