PITCHER MATCHUP

Luinder Avila vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luinder Avila's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luinder Avila's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .341Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 27%Sinker 26%Slider 22%Curveball 16%Changeup 9%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luinder Avila, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .394
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .419 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.