PITCHER MATCHUP

Luinder Avila vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luinder Avila's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luinder Avila's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .341Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 27%Sinker 26%Slider 22%Curveball 16%Changeup 9%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luinder Avila, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .395
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .416 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 468 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.