PITCHER MATCHUP

Luinder Avila vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luinder Avila's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luinder Avila's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .305vs RHH xwOBA .344Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 27%Sinker 26%Slider 22%Curveball 16%Changeup 9%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luinder Avila, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .404
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .422 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .420 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .417 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CW Christian Walker RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.