PITCHER MATCHUP

Luinder Avila vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Luinder Avila's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Luinder Avila's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .323vs RHH xwOBA .306Seasons 2026–2025
Sinker 27%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Slider 25%Curveball 15%Changeup 8%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Luinder Avila, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Sinker (27% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .405
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Sinker (27% usage) projects to .421 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .414 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .426 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CS Cam Smith RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Sinker (27% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Sinker (27% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 408 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Sinker (27% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Sinker (27% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Sinker (27% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Sinker (27% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Jake Meyers RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Meyers
    • Sinker (27% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.